Huatai Strategy： The opportunity and direction of bridging the market differentiation
Huatai Strategy: The opportunity and direction of bridging the market differentiation
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Source: Huatai Strategy Research. The opportunity and direction to bridge the market differentiation. The opportunity to bridge the divergence between the boom and the estimated monthly report is coming. Pay attention to the boom, the direction of the estimation and counter-cyclical policy resonance. The recent market has shown obvious differentiation characteristics, mainly reflected in several types of sectors.Between: technology growth vs. cycle consumption, themed small cap high beta stocks vs big market value blue chips, mid-to-long-term economic deterministic industry vs short-term epidemic affecting disrupted industries.
Investigating the reasons, factors such as loose margins of liquidity + peak of ETF newly issued funds (Jin Qilin analyst) + M & A and restructuring policies + two sudden changes in the industry boom under the influence of the epidemic + short-term performance boom to be confirmed, and other factors promote the continuous differentiation of market differentiation.
However, through the gradual control of the epidemic situation, the policy of resumption of labor and counter-cyclical policies has begun to work, alternating between 3-4 months of annual reporting season and the arrival of the macroeconomic data verification period, the differentiation between technological growth and cyclical consumption may gradually be bridged.Stand out from the crowd, keep up with catch-up as short as possible, pay attention to the prosperity, and estimate the direction of resonance with the counter-cyclical policy.
Under the dual test of macro and micro fundamental data, market differentiation is difficult to say. Sustained post-holiday liquidity expectations are expected to promote the continuous improvement of the GEM 50. Under the demonstration effect, the GEM index, SME index, CSI 1000 and other small and medium-cap stock index estimatesQuickly rise above the pre-holiday high.
From the perspective 杭州夜网 of the relative expectations of the index, the GEM index relative to the Shanghai Composite Index estimate (PE TTM, the same below) has reached more than 75 since 2010, equal to the period of high technology growth in 2013-3014.
The growth style of 2013-2014 was deduced. The market differentiation is due to the fact that the GEM profit trend continues to be stronger than all A-share non-financial sectors as a whole. The performance of non-blue chip companies in the GEM round is yet to be verified, and the A-share profit trend may be stronger than 2013.-Year 2014.
It is expected that the continuity of the growth style of 3-4 months will face the double test of macro and micro fundamental data, and the differentiation or convergence of the growth and cyclic consumption sectors.
Industry boom: The short-term midstream boom is deterministic and the downstream counter-cyclical policy is expected to drive the upstream to repair midstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors, cloud computing, aerospace and other sectors. Due to the strong demand side (benefits and good economic conditions, 2B, 2GOr overseas demand), intelligent organization and network of production organization, stronger economic certainty than the real estate infrastructure industry chain in the upper and middle reaches, and downstream mandatory and optional consumer industries. Another prosperity is replaced by resumption, the epidemic affects demand, policy advancement and fundingFirst and foremost factors.
1) Upstream resource materials: Nonferrous coal and steel stocks are rising, prices are under pressure, and full resumption of work is needed; 2) Midstream and downstream are subject to weak retail demand and the pace of resumption of work is falling, such as the infrastructure and real estate chain (steel, building materials, light industry, home appliances) And necessary consumption (food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery); 3) Deterministic abrupt changes in the midstream, such as the new energy vehicle industry chain, and the technology industry (semiconductor, 5G, military, etc.).
Industry estimation: The high prosperity industry is estimated to be ahead of the economic expansion, indicating that the sector is dividing or nearing completion. The high prosperity industry is beginning to drive cross-industry refinement: such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, aerospace industry to drive machinery, power equipment, automotive parts, building materials, The stock industry’s relevant royalties are estimated, and some sector performance boom signals have not been confirmed, indicating that the estimates or spread ahead of the boom appear.
The real estate completion chain and the infrastructure industry chain are affected by the resumption of work and the counter-cyclical adjustment policy. It is estimated that it has not been repaired to a pre-holiday high. Industrial metal, coal, cement, fiberglass, household, paper, engineering machinery, power equipment and other sectors are estimated.Weak.
The electronic semiconductor sector and the computer cloud computing sector in the technology industry are estimated to be high. The Internet of Things, Industrial Internet, media, broadcasting, and other segmented sectors have been replaced.
Configuration suggestions: Pay attention to the business climate, estimate that the anti-cyclical policy resonates in the direction of reorganization, and the epidemic situation is gradually controlled. The resumption of labor and counter-cyclical adjustment policies are beginning to work. The annual report season from March to April and the verification period of macroeconomic data are coming. The market may welcome the style.Opportunities for convergence, focus on the boom, and estimate the direction of resonance with counter-cyclical policies.
It is recommended to pay attention to the rebound of the economy, and it is estimated that the reasonable and counter-cyclical policies benefit the three resonance directions: 1) New infrastructure: machinery (instrumentation / industrial robots), communication (vehicle networking / industrial Internet), media (radio and television, and State Grid jointly build 5G), Military (satellite), automotive (smart car related), power equipment and new energy; 2) infrastructure: construction (garden / decoration / iron construction / railway crossing), steel, building materials (cement / glass fiber), non-ferrous (copper); 3) the economic rebound under the impact of the epidemic + the macro-micro data is lower than the defensive sector in the expected situation: medical equipment.
Risk reminders: 1) Expectations of economic fundamentals affected by the epidemic situation overseas, trigger market risk conversion; 2) March-April Annual Report Express, Quarterly Forecast, or Annual Report Quarterly Disclosure Exceeds Expectations; 3) Counter-cyclical in Q1 2020Budget policy was lower than expected.
01Bridging opportunities and directions for market differentiation Since the current economic cycle has come down in 2018, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have continued to transform the economic structure and transition, and do not engage in the “flooding flood” type of strong stimulus. It will be promoted in 5G at the end of 2019.Driven by this, funds continue to shift from traditional to emerging sectors.
After the short-term adjustment of the market affected by the recent epidemic situation, the market has continued to differentiate since the end of 19th. To what extent has the current market differentiation?
When will the style bridging opportunity appear?
Which sectors will benefit?
This article will comprehensively estimate the space of various industry sectors, the change in the business climate, and benefit from counter-cyclical policies to answer the above questions.
The interpretation of the growth style has been compared to the period of high growth in science and technology. The interpretation of the growth style has been compared to the period of high growth in technology. The structural boom period of the technology growth plate in 2013/2014.
After the Spring Festival, the market will be adjusted short-term due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, but the loose liquidity is expected to promote the GEM 50 to continuously improve the estimated value. Under the demonstration effect, the GEM index, the SME board index, and the CSI 1000 and other small and medium-cap stocks have rapidly increased their index variables.Above the pre-holiday highs, blue-chip value stocks such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 performed the bottom.
From the perspective of relative index estimates, the GEM 50 and GEM Index relative to the Shanghai Composite Index (PE TTM, the same below) have reached a historical 75th percentile.
After excluding the impact of goodwill impairment losses, the GEM 50, the GEM Index is still estimated to reach around 75th relative to the Shanghai Composite Index.
Looking at the fractional sector, the relative growth ratio of consumption returned to 2013.
6. The cycle is growing relatively at the bottom of 2013-2014.
Macro and micro verification data period differentiation or convergence, focus on the prosperity, estimation and counter-cyclical policy resonance direction 2013-2014 growth style interpretation, market differentiation is derived from the fact that the profit trend of GEM continues to be stronger than that of all A-share non-financial sectors as a whole.The performance of the non-blue chip companies is yet to be verified, and the A-share profit trend may be stronger than 2013-2014.
We are at 2.
5 According to the analysis of the annual report of “Perspective Performance Indicator: GEM and High-Goodwill Enterprises”, in 2018, the net profit scale of the 50 GEM sections accounted for 87% of the entire GEM, and the 2019 annual report ‘s forecast ratio fell to 54% (according toThe performance forecast center calculation) shows that the low base effect of the performance of the non-GEM 50 sector, that is, the performance of non-performance blue chip companies, has driven the growth of the GEM to stabilize in 2019.
The performance of ChiNext, especially for non-performance blue chip companies, has yet to be verified.
At the same time, in our annual strategy, we mentioned that under the background of macroeconomic cyclical inventory replenishment, the profit trend of A-shares in 2020 may be better, and this trend is expected to be stronger than the peak growth rate of 2013-2014.
It is expected that the growth style continuity of 3-4 months will face the double test of macro and micro fundamental data.
From a macro perspective, if the resumption of work in March and the economic data for the first quarter exceed expectations, before the counter-cyclical policies come into force, market risks may be under pressure due to the decline in internal and domestic demand and changes in external exchange rates. Under the pressure of adjustment, the market may returnDefense; if the macro data is in line with expectations, there is an estimated repair momentum for cyclical consumption.
From a micro perspective, the earnings season needs to pay attention to whether the performance of the growth sector will diverge. If the performance of non-value growth stocks on the GEM and small and medium-sized boards is expected, the theme stocks in the interpretation of the early growth market may face adjustments.
Therefore, the change of epidemic situation is gradually under control, the policy of resumption of labor and counter-cyclical regulation has begun to work. The March-April annual report season and the verification period of macroeconomic data have come. The market may usher in an opportunity for differentiation and convergence.逆周期政策受益共振方向：（1）新基建：机械（仪器仪表/工业机器人），通信（车联网/工业互联网），军工（卫星），汽车（智能汽车相关）/电力设备及新能源 （2) Infrastructure: Construction (architectural / garden / decoration / iron construction / railway crossing), steel, building materials (glass / glass fiber), non-ferrous (copper) (3) rebound under the influence of the epidemic + macro and micro data beyond the expected defensePlate: Medical equipment.
02Industry Prosperity and Estimates: High-prosperity industries drive cross-industry assessments. Upstream: Nonferrous coal, steel, and nonferrous metals: Copper stocks are overly volatile. Cobalt prices are trying to stabilize industrial metals. Copper and aluminum stock pressures have been overcome, especially copper has experienced excessive initial stockpiles and resumed workPost-countercyclical adjustment policies are expected to bring copper and aluminum repair opportunities.
In terms of new energy small metals, the price of electrolytic cobalt dropped slightly last week, and the domestic hydroxide price was stable. The Huatai Nonferrous Metals team expects that the price of cobalt will continue to increase when both supply and demand improve. Coal: Thermal coal prices rose slightly but in the short term or under pressure, coking coal short-term prices or strong thermal coal, the current comprehensive price of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) is 559 yuan / ton, weekly change is 0.
2%, a slight increase, but the Huatai Coal and Iron and Steel team predicts that the coal mine resumption rate is higher than downstream, and thermal coal prices may be under pressure; for coking coal, due to transportation restrictions and tight supply, except for independent coking plants with a capacity of more than 2 million tons,At present, coking coal stocks at coking plants and steel mills have fallen, and coking coal prices may be firm.
Steel: Consecutive causes of rising production inventories and falling prices. The policy of the counter-cyclical period has driven demand to stabilize and price. In the short term, due to the impact of the epidemic, work has not been fully resumed, and the prices of construction steel have fallen.
According to the Huatai Iron & Steel team, the progress of construction site resumption is slower than that of the factory, and the demand for construction steel will be restored as early as mid-March.
In terms of valuation, under the situation of weak overall improvement in downstream demand, significant improvement in demand, and significant improvement in liquidity, the valuation repair space for the steel sub-sector is different: 1) Compared with weaker improvement in demand, such as the spring of 2014, the performance of the infrastructure and real estate chain increasedNot significantly higher than expected, the current steel sub-sector except special steel and iron ore, the PB valuation did not appear relatively underestimated; 2) compared with the demand significantly improved, such as 2013, 2016, the current steel sub-sector except special steel and iron oreShi PB’s valuation still has 10 ~ 20% room for improvement; 3) In 2015 and 2019, where relative liquidity has improved significantly, the current steel sub-sector has room for more than 20% in valuation.
中下游：基建&地产竣工链 建筑建材：逆周期政策+再融资利好建筑子行业，玻璃和玻纤库存短期上升价格承压 建筑：再融资直接利好板块，后期专项债发行加快、复工提速、逆Cycle adjustment efforts are expected to improve the overall valuation of the sector.
In terms of valuation, the steel structure has been repaired above the pre-holiday high, and the valuation of garden decoration and construction central enterprises (involving infrastructure) is behind.
Building materials: Cement Q2 is expected to usher in rising prices and short-term pressure on the inventory of glass and fiberglass manufacturers. However, the Huatai building materials team expects that the pressure on glass fiber supply will also ease during the year, and prices may remain in the future.
轻工家电汽车：地产竣工链零售端需求疲软，智能汽车逆周期调节政策出台 轻工：1）家居预计需求韧性较强且Q1淡季收入占比较低，但地产赶工或晚于基建开工；2）Consumer light industry: Mid-to-long-term demand for mandatory consumer products such as daily necessities, cultural office supplies, etc. is expected to be relatively stable, especially for online office-related businesses that have benefited from the epidemic, and valuations have been restored to pre-holiday highs; downstream demand for paper and packaging is suppressed in the short term, but transportation restrictionsThe price is stable, and at the same time, the import cost of US waste and US waste pulp is expected to further reduce and it is expected to increase profits, and full resumption of work is needed to confirm the elasticity of downstream demand.
Home appliances: Affected by advance shipments on Double Eleven and Double Twelve, and the impact of the Spring Festival and Epidemic, white electricity demand has fallen. According to data from Aowei Cloud, offline retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and freezers in the 1-7 week period of 2020Respectively year-on-year.
Black power was affected by thematic opportunities such as Beidou networking and its valuation increased.
Automobile: According to the report of the Tramway, recently, the Development and Reform Commission and 11 national ministries and commissions jointly stamped out and issued the “Smart Car Innovation and Development Strategy.”
The strategy pointed out the vision of realizing the large-scale production of conditional smart cars in 2025, and the complete establishment of the Chinese standard smart car system in 2035, and pointed out the main tasks of smart car development such as developing core technologies, improving infrastructure construction, and improving relevant laws and regulations.
In terms of valuation, the valuation of the auto parts industry has benefited from the boom in the Tesla industry chain, which has driven the valuation to its highest level since 2018.
电力设备及新能源：新能源车/光伏景气估值双升，风电/电气设备为板块估值洼地 风电：国家能源局已明确从2022年开始，停止新建海上风电项目的中央补贴，鼓励地方政府Self-subsidy. After subsidizing subsidence, sprinting or installation is inevitable.
The wind power sector as a whole is still at the bottom of the valuation.
New energy vehicles: The boom in foreign countries is up, and domestic sales have fallen year-on-year due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic.
Affected by the Spring Festival and epidemic situation in January, the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles in the month dropped year-on-year.
Overseas, according to German KBA data, Germany’s pure electric vehicle sales in January 2020 were 7,492, an increase of 61.
2%, market share increased to 3.
Beginning in 2020, Europe will implement stricter carbon emission requirements. Car companies that fail to meet the standards will face huge fines. European car companies have accelerated their electrification plans to meet the challenges.
Photovoltaic: The industrial chain price fell slightly, but the supply gap in Q2 and Q3 may further increase.
Since February, the prices of monocrystalline silicon wafers (156mm × 156mm), secondary polysilicon units, polycrystalline silicon wafers (156mm × 156mm), and photovoltaic-grade polysilicon have all fallen to varying degrees in the photovoltaic industry chain.
However, under the dual pressure of price and cost, the only two polysilicon manufacturers in South Korea have successively announced their gradual withdrawal from the polysilicon competition since the beginning of the year. The new team of Huatai Power believes that the current leading structure of the silicon material link is clear and the terminal demand deferral will be furtherThe supply gap of Q2 and Q3 single crystal materials is exacerbated, and the rise in the price of silicon materials has certain continuity.
Machinery: The inflection point sector raises its valuation, and the medium and long-term sector is yet to be verified. According to the prediction of the Huatai Machinery team, the construction machinery sector will continue to boom in 2020, and the demand for industrial robots, industrial gases, semiconductor equipment, and lithium-ion equipment is expected to stabilize.
In January 2020, the sales volume of the excavator industry was 9,942 units / YoY-15.
The monthly sales volume fluctuates greatly, but the average daily sales volume is not weak, and the excavator industry still has a demand boom.
In terms of valuation, in addition to construction machinery, the valuation of other sectors has increased, especially the lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and 3C equipment sectors.
军工：航天航空自主可控、卫星产业链值得关注 上周美国关于特朗普政府考虑阻止通用电气子公司赛峰集团向中国交付LEAP-1C发动机的报道，引发了市场对我国航空制造产业链安全On the other hand, since 2020, the development of satellite communications and Beidou high-precision navigation industry has officially entered the stage of commercialization. The Huatai military industry team believes that with the advancement and commercial operation of low-orbit satellite Internet projects at home and abroad,The future satellite industry has broad market application potential. In the first half of 2020, it is recommended to focus on Beidou navigation high-precision applications and the satellite industry chain.
通信：新基建有望加速推进5G建设落地，引导应用端景气估值提升 根据新华社和C114消息，政治局和工信部在近日召开的会议上，都强调在做好疫情防控工作的同时，制定和Optimizing the 5G network construction plan and accelerating the pace of 5G, especially the independent network construction, the Huatai Communication team believes that 5G as a new type of information infrastructure construction will play an important role in counter-cyclical adjustment.
The current communications sub-sector or segment represents the company’s gross profit margin has maintained a pick-up since 2018, where base station equipment> optical modules> Internet of Things> IDC; communications sub-sector PETTM valuation shows that optical modules> base station equipment> IDC> Internet of Things, communicationsThe performance and valuation of the midstream segment have improved significantly, and there has been no significant performance and valuation improvement in the midstream and downstream applications.
电子：半导体产业估值提升扩散至材料，面板等产业 当前消费电子、半导体业绩改善明显，两个板块估值在电子元器件行业居前，主要受益于5G 基站设备出货量提升，同时TWS耳机Shipments of explosive consumer electronics products have increased significantly, and the valuation of the semiconductor industry has increased from semiconductor equipment to semiconductor materials. The market ‘s expectations for the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the display device segment in 2020 are also rising, and the valuation of the segment is increasing.
Computers: The Industrial Internet is relatively undervalued. The current high valuations of the computer industry are autonomous and controllable, financial technology, smart medical and cloud computing sectors. The relatively low valuations are 5G application related (including Internet of Vehicles, Industrial Internet, etc.) sectors.
The former is the current strong sector, and the latter needs to further confirm the growth trend in 2020.Around the period of structural boom in the technology growth sector from 2013 to 2014, the Industrial Internet re-forecasts room for improvement, autonomous and controllable, connected cars, and cloud computing PE TTM estimates that it has surpassed the previous period.
Downstream: essential consumer goods, food and beverages: white wine prices differentiate, raw milk, milk powder prices increase, white wine prices differentiate, in February 2020, the price of high-end liquor such as Wuliangye rose 25.
57%, while the price of mid- and low-end liquor such as Jiannanchun fell slightly by 4.
Milk powder and raw milk prices have risen.
Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery: Under the influence of the epidemic, the average price of hogs fell slightly. The seed industry, vaccines, and feed boom are expected to rebound. Swine farming: As of February 21, 2020, the average retail price of pork in 36 cities fell further, and the price of chicken meat fell more thanpork.
Seed industry: On February 5th, the Central Document No. 1 proposed stabilizing grain production and increasing support for high-yield corn and soybean varieties and new agronomy.
The Huatai Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery team believes that the approval of GM corn safety certificates and policies are favorable, and the commercialization of domestic GM staple food crops has entered a “substantial advancement period”.
Post-breeding cycle: In the future, the hog inventory will gradually recover, which will directly drive the sales of pig vaccines and the recovery of feed demand.
Medicine: The impact of the epidemic is expected to surge in the sales of the lower molecular industry. The Huatai Pharmaceutical team believes that most of the pharmaceutical industry’s demand is rigid, and demand that will be suppressed by the epidemic in the short term will be released one after another, with limited impact on it.
In biomedicine, the demand for exempt plasma has increased, but the impact on related companies’ performance has been limited. The short-term changes have increased to thematic opportunities. The sales of medical device epidemic-related products have also improved, and the impact of other sectors has been relatively small.
Risk reminders 1) Expected economic fundamentals overseas affected by the epidemic, which will lead to changes in market risk changes; 2) March-April Annual Report Express, Quarterly Forecast, or Annual Report Quarterly Disclosure Exceeds Expectations; 3) Countercyclical Budget Policy for the First Quarter of 2020beyond expectation.